NL Wild-Card Preview: Can Brewers shake playoff woes against surging Mets?

Since 2018, the Milwaukee Brewers rank third in the National League with 580 regular season wins, have booked six trips to the post-season and have claimed four division titles.

But with just one playoff series win to show for it, the Brewers have been unable to solve the puzzle of October baseball. They’ll get their chance this year against the New York Mets, who have continued to surprise in what was widely considered a transition season. But don’t tell these Mets, as they have continued to prove there’s no counting this group out.

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On the other side of the NL bracket, the San Diego Padres will welcome the Atlanta Braves to Petco Park. After trading away Juan Soto, the Padres have emerged as one of the most balanced teams in baseball, and seem to be peaking at the right time.

Just making the playoffs proved to be a challenge for the injury-laden Braves. But now that it’s in, Atlanta will look to recapture some of the magic from its 2021 World Series run.

With all that said, let’s dive into both matchups.

No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers (93-69) vs. No. 6 New York Mets (89-73)

Brewers won the season series, 5-1, outscoring the Mets 28-17.

What’s working for the Brewers:

Milwaukee cruised to the NL Central title behind one of the best bullpens in baseball and the emergence of multiple star-level contributors in the lineup. The Brewers bullpen has been solid all year long but enters the post-season firing on all cylinders. The relief crew is headlined by Devin Williams, Joel Payamps and Aaron Ashby and ranks among the NL leaders in ERA (2.72), strikeout minus walk percentage (18.3) and HR/9 (0.81) since the All-Star break. On the offensive side, Jackson Chourio slashed .310/.363/.552 with 12 homers in the second half to rank 10th in baseball in fWAR over that span, producing a formidable middle-of-the-order trio alongside Willy Adames and William Contreras.

What’s working for the Mets:

The Mets have rewritten the narrative of their season with an electric dash to October, winning games at a 105-victory pace since mid-August. The starting quartet of Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Luis Severino and José Quintana have done some heavy lifting in the second half, helping New York to the best second-half rotation ERA in the National League (3.47). The likely MVP runner-up, Francisco Lindor, has put his stamp on this Mets season, producing big swing after big swing, with perhaps none larger than his ninth-inning heroics in Monday’s doubleheader, clinching New York’s spot in the post-season.

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Potential Achilles heel for the Brewers:

After losing Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff to shoulder surgery in the off-season, the Brewers rotation was full of question marks behind Freddy Peralta entering 2024. And while the likes of Colin Rea and Tobias Myers stepped up to help carry Milwaukee through the regular season, the Brewers still don’t have a definitive Game 2 starter behind Peralta. Milwaukee’s starters are also limping into October, owning a 5.06 ERA over the final month with the second-worst home run rate in the NL.

Potential Achilles heel for the Mets:

Bullpen depth. With the Mets’ post-season hopes coming down to the wire, they’ve had to tax their relief corps over the past few days. That includes the 66 pitches closer Edwin Díaz threw the last two days, which will likely have him unavailable for Game 1 of the wild card. That’ll put some extra pressure on the likes of Phil Maton, Reed Garrett and Danny Young, all of whom have pitched to varying levels of success this season. With a middle-of-the-pack bullpen, things might get a little uncomfortable for the Mets throughout the series if they are forced to use some of their less reliable arms in a big spot.

It’ll all come down to…

If the Brewers can silence Lindor. Since returning from a back injury that kept him out for just less than two weeks, the Mets shortstop has picked up right where he left off. He’s picked up six hits and two homers over four games and hasn’t looked hampered by the back at all. He’s New York’s table setter and best player, so the onus falls onto Milwaukee’s staff to limit his impact.

No. 4 Padres (93-69) vs. No. 5 Atlanta Braves (89-73)

Padres won the season series, 4-3, outscoring the Braves 26-22.

What’s working for the Padres:

Since the trade deadline, San Diego has had MLB’s best record, its third-best wRC+, ninth-best rotation ERA, and sixth-best bullpen ERA. The Padres are excelling in every facet of the game, and their stars are playing like stars — Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado combined to leave the yard 17 times in September. Starters Dylan Cease, Michael King and Joe Musgrove are all sporting sub-3.00 second-half ERAs and get to hand the ball off to a bullpen which owns the best Stuff+ number in baseball and features experienced late-game pitchers Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez.

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What’s working for the Braves:

With Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II and Sean Murphy all missing significant time this season, the Braves have struggled to push runs across the plate. So, while Marcell Ozuna will be on a majority of MVP ballots and Harris and Matt Olson have turned it on in September, it’s been Atlanta’s pitching staff that dragged it into a seventh-straight post-season appearance. The Braves ended the year with the lowest team ERA in MLB, and that excellence continued in September as Atlanta pitched to a 2.72 ERA and racked up 269 strikeouts.

Potential Achilles heel for the Padres:

Hitting against left-handed pitching. Hearing that NL Cy Young favourite Chris Sale will likely miss the wild-card series must have been music to Padres hitters’ ears, as San Diego has struggled against southpaws all season long. Since the trade deadline, the Padres have a .671 OPS against lefties, an extreme dropoff from their .784 mark against righties. Atlanta southpaw Max Fried is lined up to start Game 2 of the series, so if Sale somehow finds a way to pitch, there could be just enough of a chink in San Diego’s armour for the Braves to capitalize on.

Potential Achilles heel for the Braves:

As good as Atlanta’s pitching has been this season, it’s in for a serious test the next few days. Between Sale’s unclear status, having to use leverage relievers Joe Jiménez and Raisel Iglesias in both halves on the doubleheader and having Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton pitch in the days leading up to Game 1 of the wild card, the Braves could be severely shorthanded to open the series. While Fried and Reynaldo Lopez are set for Games 2 and 3, Atlanta needs to win one of the first two to make that matter.

It’ll all come down to…

If Atlanta’s hitters can solve San Diego’s pitching. Top-to-bottom, the Padres might have the best group of arms of any team in the post-season. With four legit starters and six relievers you can trust, the Braves’ bats are going to need to find a gear that’s been largely out of reach for them this year if they want to pull off the upset.